Recently, billionaire Elon Musk has firmly stated that the world is not enough people, contrary to the move to maintain the population of many countries in the world.
“Look at the numbers, if people can’t have more children, civilization will collapse,” Elon Musks said.
Elon Musk’s warnings are well-founded when the Lancet report shows that the global population in the next 100 years will decline for the first time in history. Specifically, the world has 7.8 billion people and this number will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and decline to 8.79 billion in 2100.
About 23 countries around the world will witness a population decline of more than 50% such as Japan, Thailand, Italy, Spain, South Korea… Accompanied by a decline in the birth rate as well as the status of the population. rapid population aging.
Even the most populous country in the world today, China, will halve from 1.4 billion people in 2017 to just 732 million in 2100.
In 2020, Australia recorded a population decline for the first time since World War I, something that worries many experts. The general situation is also happening around the world.
Of course, where there is a decrease in the number of countries, there is also an increase in population. The Lancet report shows that regions of North Africa and the Middle East will triple their population from 1.03 billion to 3.07 billion by 2100.
According to the Lancet, over the long term, the global population situation is alarming as the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which represents the average number of births per woman over her lifetime, has downward trend. The global TFR is projected to decline from 2.37 children/woman in 2017 to just 1.66 children/woman in 2100.
On average, each family needs to have 2 children to replace the role of parents in social and economic stability in the future. This means that the TFR would theoretically have to be 2 for the world’s population to remain in the long run.
However, due to the influence of the environment, many children do not live to adulthood, so this number is often set higher than 2.1 depending on the situation of each country.
The TFR index is of great importance in the long-term because although the number of births is greater than the number of deaths, in the long-term, the young will not be enough to follow the predecessors, not to mention the burden of social security. festival.
In China, the low birth rate makes many people fall into the “sandwich” situation when they have to take care of their children and take care of their elderly parents without many siblings to help.
Official figures show that China’s TFR is currently at just 1.3 children per woman, compared with 1.6 children per woman in the US. Worse, the U.S. birth rate has fallen for the sixth year in a row and is down 19% since 2007.
Currently, the TFR rate in Japan is 1.3 children/woman, in Russia is 1.6 children/woman, and in Brazil is 1.8 children/woman.
Although some countries like Pakistan (3.4) or Nigeria (5.1) have higher TFRs of 2.1, they are still lower than in the 1960s when Pakistan had 6.6 children per woman and Nigeria there are 6.4 children/woman, showing that the fertility rate gradually decreases.
The main reason, according to experts, is that the rising standard of living makes people prefer to enjoy themselves rather than focus on taking care of their children. In addition, the rapid urbanization rate has resulted in a large number of children, equivalent to a large number of mouths to eat, in contrast to the previous farming culture that required a lot of labor.
In the 1960s, about one-third of the world’s population lived in cities, and today the proportion is close to 60%.
The decline in population will have a heavy impact on the socio-economic situation
In addition, the high cost of raising children also makes many young couples unable to have more children than before.
According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), this situation will make the situation of “sandwiches” similar to those in China today more and more common when too few young people have to struggle to take care of many fake people. both children.
In the 1960s, the ratio of retirees per person of working age was 6 to 1, today this number is about 3 to 1 and could increase to 2 to 1 by 2035.
Obviously, just like what Elon Musk said, people will get older and less than they are today.