Demand for the iPhone XS Max is far outpacing demand for its smaller, less expensive sibling, the TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote in a note distributed on Monday.
Two new iPhones went on sale this past weekend. Both the iPhone XS and the iPhone XS Max are premium devices, with respective starting prices of $999 and $1,099.
But the Max model, with a bigger screen and starting price, is way more popular, Kuo suggests.
From the note:
“We have determined that the demand for XS Max is better than expected, (3-4 times that of XS). The gold and space-grey colors are significantly more popular than the silver. 256GB is the most popular, and 512GB is subject to a serious shortage because only Samsung can currently ship NAND Flash well. We are positive that XS Max shipments will grow steadily in 4Q18 thanks to demand from Asia market and the gift season.”
Kuo now believes that the XS Max will make up a 5% to 10% larger proportion of iPhone XS shipments over the next two quarters. In total, Kuo predicts that Apple will ship 75 million to 80 million units of both phones in the second half of 2018, according to the note seen by Business Insider.
But the real “supercycle” may come next month when Apple is scheduled to release the iPhone XR, which Kuo believes could return the entire iPhone lineup to growth in the first half of next year, thanks to a $750 starting price that could entice people to upgrade from older iPhones. The new Apple Watch, the Series 4, also has strong demand, Kuo wrote.
He warned, however, that two Apple suppliers, Japan Display and LG, were having issues making enough displays for the iPhone XR.
Kuo is a well-respected analyst known for accurately predicting Apple products before they’re announced. His research is geared toward investors who want to know what’s going on in Apple’s Asian supply chain — some of his favorite stocks based on last weekend’s launch include Largan, LG Innotek, Hon-hai, and Pegatron.