The first question that will be answered – today – is whether the rebels can indeed get control of the order paper again. At the moment, it isn’t clear when we might find that out (today is, after all, the first day back for MPs after their summer holidays!).
To further muddy waters, a judge in Edinburgh’s Court of Sessions will also be asked for a ruling on whether the Prime Minister is acting illegally in suspending parliament for 5 weeks ahead of the Queen’s Speech on October 14. If we can survive today’s uncertainty, we may move on to a vote tomorrow which will then determine whether the rebels have succeeded in the plan to force the PM to ask for a delay. Whether that vote passes is uncertain, since while there are enough Conservative rebels to win the vote if the opposition supports it, there may be some Labour rebels from Brexiteer constituencies who support the Government.
But, if that vote passes, there will almost certainly be a vote as the PM seeks elections instead. Could he win the two-thirds majority needed to force elections? Gain, that’s not certain and after that, there is the biggest uncertainty of all, which is what happens at an election in October. The Conservatives have performed well In opinion polls, at the expense of the Brexit Party, but may not have the4 seats to win outright majority.
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